Eight calculators for the decisions marketing money depends on. Amber fields hold example values, not your numbers: type yours and the results recompute. Each result shows its formula in words.
Use revenue from your own records where you can; platform-reported revenue tends to over-credit the platform.
Lifetime from churn assumes steady churn. Cohort data beats this estimate when you have it.
Contribution margin is price minus variable cost, as a share of price.
| Input | Low | Most likely | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visitors | |||
| Lead rate (%) | |||
| Close rate (%) | |||
| Value per customer |
5,000 simulated months from these ranges, with a fixed seed so the same inputs give the same answer.
P10: nine months in ten do at least this well; plan on it. P90: an upside, not a target.
| Channel | Scale a | Curve b | Max spend |
|---|
Each channel's results are modelled as a × spendb, fitted from your own past months (b below 1 means each extra dollar buys less). The example curves are illustrations, not measurements.
| Channel | Spend | Share | Results |
|---|
Two variants, 50/50 split, two-sided test. Halving the lift you want to detect roughly quadruples the visitors needed.
Read the result only when the planned sample is reached. The traffic split is checked first: an uneven split means something is broken.